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The One Metric That Has Decided Every Presidential Winner Since 1988…And Trump Has a Lock on It

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Again, David Chapman and PollWatch are two good accounts that have been tracking the polling this cycle and cutting through the nonsense from the liberal media. There’s been a lot of funny business with the polling folks. Firms conducting polls around the same time but getting different results. We have shy Trump voters. The youth vote interest is tanking in this election cycle to levels not seen since 2000. Some polls have one million fewer young people voting this year. But somehow Biden is going to win by like 12 points. It’s unreliable to the nth degree. So, what Chapman did was compile a thread that cuts through a lot of the liberal media silliness out there. For starters, he nixes the idea that bad economies kill incumbents. Yes, that was the case for Bush 41, but historically the incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during an economic downturn.

And speaking of incumbents, Chapman added, “no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.” . . .

“Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections,” wrote Chapman “What about polls? Well, polls are predicting Trump’s win. The ABC poll shows Trump with a 19-point enthusiasm advantage.”

He noted that every candidate who held the edge in voter enthusiasm since 1988 has won the election. (Read more from “The One Metric That Has Decided Every Presidential Winner Since 1988…And Trump Has a Lock on It” HERE)

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Trump Teases Release of ‘Breathtaking’ Russia Probe Documents

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President Donald Trump on Sunday teased the release of information related to the Russia investigation, which he described as “breathtaking.”

“Documents are being released at a level now that nobody’s ever seen before. Things that nobody were going to get released are now being released,” Trump said in an interview on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures.”

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Justice Department and FBI have declassified a slew of documents related to U.S. agencies’ intelligence-gathering activities against Trump and his associates in 2016.

Several of the documents were related to the Steele dossier, which the FBI used to obtain surveillance warrants against former Trump campaign aide Carter Page.

Trump did not specify which documents will be declassified. But he said on Tuesday in another Fox News interview that he had ordered the “total” declassification of documents related to what he called the “Russia hoax.” (Read more from “Trump Teases Release of ‘Breathtaking’ Russia Probe Documents” HERE)

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Second Presidential Debate Officially Cancelled

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Just one day after announcing the second 2020 debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden would be moved to a virtual format, the Commission on Presidential Debates has formally canceled the event entirely.

“The campaigns of the two candidates who qualified for participation in the debate made a series of statements concerning their respective positions regarding their willingness to participate in a virtual debate on October 15, and each now has announced alternate plans for that date,” the Commission said in a statement released Friday evening. “It is now apparent there will be no debate on October 15, and the CPD will turn its attention to preparations for the final presidential debate scheduled for October 22.”

The Commission added that barring unexpected concerns relating to coronavirus, the third debate will still take place at Belmont University and the six different segments — each chosen by moderator Kristen Welker of NBC News — will all focus on foreign policy. Welker is expected to announce the topics at least one week prior to the debate.

Trump originally threatened to skip the second debate following the Commission’s Thursday announcement.

(Read more from “Second Presidential Debate Officially Cancelled” HERE)

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Trump Claims He Is Immune to Coronavirus

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President Trump on Sunday indicated that he no longer has the coronavirus and claimed that he is now “immune” from the disease as he is set to rejoin the campaign trail soon.

“Yes, and not only that, it seems like I’m immune, so I can go way out of a basement, which I would have done anyway,” Trump said in response to a question from “Sunday Morning Futures” host Maria Bartiromo about whether his doctor’s note indicates he no longer has the coronavirus.

The White House has not yet confirmed that Trump has tested negative for the virus. There’s evidence that reinfection is unlikely for at least three months even for people who had a mild case of COVID-19. But it is unclear how much longer that lasts.

“The president is in very good shape to fight the battles,” Trump added. “I beat this crazy horrible China virus… I passed the highest test, the highest standards, and I’m in great shape. And I have to tell you I feel fantastically. I really feel good.”

Trump made the comments the day after his first public appearance since being diagnosed with the coronavirus Saturday. The interview is a continuation of a virtual media blitz the president has been engaged in this week as he convalesces. (Read more from “Trump Claims He Is Immune to Coronavirus” HERE)

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Over Half of Americans Say They Are Better off Now Under Trump Than Four Years Ago Under Obama-Biden

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A solid majority of 56 percent of Americans say they are better off now than they were four years ago, a new Gallup survey reveals.

Only 32 percent say they are worse off than four years ago. The number is, as Fox News’s Laura Ingraham noted on Thursday night, “the highest Gallup has ever recorded.” . . .

Historically speaking, this bodes very well for President Donald Trump as he seeks reelection. Right around previous presidential elections when an incumbent has been seeking reelection dating back to the mid-1980s, never has this number been this high — or even at a majority. For instance, when former President Barack Obama was seeking reelection in early 2012, the number was at 45 percent. It stayed at that level through the election that Obama won until December 2012. Likewise, when former President George W. Bush was seeking reelection in 2004 — in October — the number was at 47 percent. The junior Bush won. When former President George H.W. Bush was seeking reelection in 1992, the number dropped down to 38 percent — and the senior Bush lost. But in 1984, when former President Ronald Reagan was seeking reelection — he won 49 states in a landslide defeat of his Democrat opponent — the number was down at just 44 percent.

It is unclear what the number was during former President Bill Clinton’s reelection campaign in 1996 in the immediate lead-up to the election as Gallup’s chart does not include that year, but earlier in 1996, less than a year before the election in January, the number was reported at 50 percent.

While the 56 percent number is impressive indeed — again the highest ever recorded this close to an election — it was even higher before the coronavirus pandemic swept across the United States. In February, a whopping 61 percent said they believed they were better off than three years earlier when Trump took office in January 2017. As such, while the number slid a little bit — five points — during the coronavirus pandemic the past six months, the number of Americans who consider their lives better with Trump as president remains at record levels even with all the disruption this year.

(Read more from “Over Half of Americans Say They Are Better off Now Under Trump Than Four Years Ago Under Obama-Biden” HERE)

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Trump Physician ‘Fully Anticipates’ President Will Be Safe to Attend Public Events by Weekend

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White House physician Sean P. Conley on Thursday said he “fully anticipates” that President Donald Trump will be safe to attend public events by the end of this week.

“Since returning home, his physical exam has remained stable and devoid of any indications to suggest progression of illness,” Conley wrote in a memorandum. “Overall he’s responded extremely well to treatment, without evidence on examination of adverse therapeutic effects.”

Trump’s physician noted that this Saturday will mark 10 days since the president’s Thursday coronavirus diagnosis. “Based on the trajectory of advanced diagnostics the team has been conducting, I fully anticipate the President’s safe return to public engagements at that time.”

Trump completed his course of therapy for COVID-19 as prescribed by his team of physicians today. (Read more from “Trump Physician ‘Fully Anticipates’ President Will Be Safe to Attend Public Events by Weekend” HERE)

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Trump Administration Sues Yale Over Use of Race in Admissions

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The Trump administration sued Yale University on Thursday, accusing the school of violating federal civil rights law by discriminating against applicants based on their race.

The Justice Department lawsuit is the most drastic action the Trump administration has taken to combat the use of race in university admissions, a practice that has repeatedly been upheld by the Supreme Court. But race-based affirmative action is considered vulnerable under the conservative majority on the high court, which would expand further if the Senate confirms President Donald Trump’s nominee, Amy Coney Barrett.

. . .The Justice Department claims in its complaint that Yale’s admissions process has for decades run afoul of federal civil rights laws that outlaw discrimination on the basis of race.

The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Connecticut, says Yale’s admissions process relies on an “oversized, standardless, intentional use of race” that favors Black and Hispanic applicants at the expense of their Asian and white counterparts. (Read more from “Trump Administration Sues Yale Over Use of Race in Admissions” HERE)

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Trump Campaign’s Request to Hold In-Person Debate Denied

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The next presidential debate will remain a virtual format, casting doubt on whether or not the debate between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden will even occur.

Frank Fahrenkopf, the co-chairman of the Commission on Presidential Debates, said on Thursday that the commission would not reverse its decision to hold the debate scheduled for Oct. 15 in a virtual format. Just earlier, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien urged the debate commission to allow the event to be in person.

“President Trump’s physician, Dr. Sean Conley, says the President will be medically cleared for ‘safe return to public engagements’ by Saturday, five full days before the originally scheduled debate in Miami on October 15. There is therefore no medical reason why the Commission on Presidential Debates should shift the debate to a virtual setting, postpone it, or otherwise alter it in any way,” Stepien said in a statement. . .

The commission’s move to make the debate virtual prompted the president to declare he won’t be participating. However, Fahrenkopf said the final debate in Nashville, Tennessee, between the two candidates is scheduled to be in person but could be subject to change based on social distancing recommendations due to the coronavirus pandemic. (Read more from “Trump Campaign’s Request to Hold In-Person Debate Denied” HERE)

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California Officials Knocked Down Giant Trump Sign on Private Property, Claimed It Was a Safety Hazard

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Officials from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) knocked down giant white letters spelling “TRUMP” on the hillside of someone’s private property on Tuesday, citing it as a “life and safety issue.”

“This was a life and safety issue because there were concerns about distracted driving,” Chief Public Information Officer for Caltrans Lauren Wonder said.

The sign was located at the Sepulveda Pass hills just outside of the largely blue and Democratic-run Los Angeles adjacent to highway 405.

The first report of the sign came right before 7 a.m. from someone who “was apparently concerned it could spark a blaze” following multiple “destructive brush fires in the past few years.”

(Read more from “California Officials Knocked Down Giant Trump Sign on Private Property, Claimed It Was a Safety Hazard” HERE)

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Dividing Biden Blames Trump for Democrat Governor Kidnap Attempt, Without Evidence

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Former Vice President Joe Biden blamed President Donald Trump on Thursday for a foiled kidnapping plot by a group of extremists who intended to abduct Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. . .

Though it did not name a specific political ideology, the FBI’s criminal complaint alleges that the members of the group “talked about creating a society that followed the U.S. Bill of Rights and where they could be self-sufficient.” Two apparently met at a Second Amendment rally.

One member of the group, Brandon Caserta, was seen in an online video in front of an anarchist flag.

Biden, speaking to reporters in Arizona alongside running mate Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), said Trump’s rhetoric was to blame:

There is no place for hate in America. And both of us have been talking about this for some time, about how white supremacists and these militias area a genuine threat. I want to compliment the FBI and the police agencies for what they did, and how they stepped up. But look –the words of a president matter. Whether they can — you’ve heard me say this before. They can cause a nation to have th market rise or fall, go to war or bring peace, but they can also breathe oxygen into those who are filled with hate and danger, and I just think It’s got to stop. The president has to realize the words he utters matter.

(Read more from “Dividing Biden Blames Trump for Democrat Governor Kidnap Attempt, Without Evidence” HERE)

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