Poll That Predicted Trump Win in 2016: Warren Catching up to Biden, but That Could Be Bad News for Democrats
A new poll by Investor’s Business Daily found that Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has pulled to within striking distance of front-runner Joe Biden, movement that follows the former vice president’s repeated gaffs and comes amid glowing coverage of Warren by major media outlets. While Warren’s momentum is good news for the progressive Massachusetts senator, the new survey from IBD/TIPP — which has been one of the most accurate pollsters in the last four elections, and the only major poll to give Trump the win in 2016 — might not be good news for Democrats.
When the final polls came in for the 2016 election, only one of the eleven major national polls that played into RealClearPolitics’ average gave Trump the advantage: IBD/TIPP showed Trump winning by 2%. While Trump, in fact, lost the popular vote, a Washington Post analysis found IBD to be the second-most accurate of the pollsters in 2016 (McClatchy/Marist got its prediction the closest). IBD/TIPP was also the most accurate in the previous three elections. That is to say, Investor’s Business Daily’s poll results are worth taking a close look at.
IBD’s newest survey of the Democratic primary candidates and their potential head-to-head matchups against Trump provides some notable results. First, Warren is increasingly poised to dethrone Biden.
The poll found that Warren has surged by 7% since August, now winning the support of 24% of registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic (up from 17%). . .
The other Democratic candidates find themselves far behind both Biden and Warren. The next closest presidential would-be is democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who pulled in just 12% (where he’s been since August), followed by Sen. Kamala Harris, who plummeted from 11% in August to just 6% in the new survey. In fifth is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 5%, while Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) has just 4% support. The rest of the candidates, including Beto O’Rourke, failed to manage more than 1%. (Read more from “Poll That Predicted Trump Win in 2016: Warren Catching up to Biden, but That Could Be Bad News for Democrats” HERE)
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