The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing an existential crisis that could spiral into civil war if not managed properly, according to a new report released this week by the UK-based Henry Jackson Society.

The report comes as the United Nations accuses Tehran of executing nearly 900 people in 2025 alone, describing the surge in executions as a “tool of intimidation” against dissent. The sheer scale of repression, combined with economic discontent and rising opposition movements, has fueled speculation that the regime’s grip on power may soon weaken.

“If the Islamic Republic falls, there is a danger that regime collapse could lead to a vacuum of governance that is accompanied by civil war,” the report warns. “This is an outcome that must be avoided at all costs for the Iranian people, and every step must therefore be made to ensure that any transition is quick and painless.”

The findings stress that Iran’s ruling clerical elite remains firmly committed to the 1979 revolution and its ideological mission, which includes “reconstituting its nuclear program and exporting terrorism both regionally and internationally.” These ambitions, the report argues, make the regime an enduring threat not just to its own people but also to Western security.

Targeted airstrikes by Israel, reportedly carried out with U.S. support in June, damaged Iranian nuclear sites and temporarily set back Tehran’s program.

“This offers a greater prospect of galvanizing the Iranian opposition if there is a plan for the day after as opposed to a vacuum of governance,” the report concludes. “And in so doing, it contains the best prescription for both resolving the threat the Iranian regime poses to the international community, and to its own people.”

The analysis comes at a time when economic hardship, protests, and international isolation have pushed Tehran into one of its most fragile moments in decades—raising the question of whether Iran is on the verge of transformation, or turmoil.

European diplomats met with Iranians on Friday face-to-face for the first time since Israel and the U.S. bombed the country last month.

The “serious, frank and detailed” meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, lasted for around four hours and the officials all agreed to meet again for continued negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.

Sanctions that were lifted on Iran in 2015 after it agreed to restrictions and monitoring of its nuclear program could be reimposed if Iran doesn’t comply with requirements.

One of Europe’s E3 nations – Britain, France and Germany, who held the talks with Iran – could bring back sanctions under the “snapback” mechanism, which allows one of the European countries to bring back U.N. sanctions if Iran violates the conditions.

European leaders have also said that sanctions will start being reinstated by the end of August if there is no progress on reining in Iran’s nuclear program. (Read more from “Iran Told to Comply with Nuclear Demands or Face Consequences after ‘Serious’ Meeting” HERE)

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