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Anonymous US Official: Russia Knew Syrian Chemical Attack Was Coming

The United States has concluded that Russia knew ahead of time that Syria would launch a chemical weapons attack last week, a senior U.S. official says.

The official offered circumstantial elements to back up his claim, but no concrete proof. And others in the Trump administration cautioned that final American determination had been made that Russia had advance knowledge of the attack, which killed more than 80 people and prompted retaliatory U.S. cruise missile strikes.

The senior official said Monday that a drone operated by Russians was flying over a hospital as victims of the attack were rushing to get treatment. Hours after the drone left, a Russian-made fighter jet bombed the hospital in what American officials believe was an attempt to cover up the usage of chemical weapons. (Read more from “Anonymous US Official: Russia Knew Syrian Chemical Attack Was Coming” HERE)

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Russian Naval Activity in Europe Exceeds Cold War Levels

Recent Russian naval activity in Europe exceeds levels seen during the Cold War, a top U.S. and NATO military officer said, voicing concern that the distributed nature of the deployments could end up “splitting and distracting” the transatlantic alliance.

Navy Admiral Michelle Howard, who heads NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command in Naples and commands U.S. naval forces in Europe and Africa, said Russia had clearly stepped up its naval actions in recent years although the size of its navy was smaller now than during the Cold War era.

“We’re seeing activity that we didn’t even see when it was the Soviet Union. It’s precedential activity,” Howard told Reuters in an interview late on Saturday during a missile defense conference.

Howard cited a wide range of activities, including Russia’s deployment of its Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean, increased patrols in the north Atlantic and Arctic region, significant out-of-area submarine deployments, and submarine movement in the Black Sea.

“They’re a global navy, I understand that. But the activity in this theater has substantially moved up in the last couple of years,” Howard said. (Read more from “Russian Naval Activity in Europe Exceeds Cold War Levels” HERE)

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Russia Warns of War; Assad Still Using Airstrip Supposedly Destroyed by US Missiles

By George Sandeman. Russia and Iran have said they will respond to further American military actions following the air strike in Syria last week.

In a joint statement, the command center for the two countries and allied groups said “we will respond to any aggression”.

The statement read: “What America waged in an aggression on Syria is a crossing of red lines. From now on we will respond with force to any aggressor or any breach of red lines from whoever it is and America knows our ability to respond well.”

The warning comes on the same day that:

*A Russian politician warned the North Koreans could strike at any time
*A seven-year-old Syrian girl tweeted her support for Trump’s missile strike
*The President blasted claims his 59-missile strike on Syrian airfield missed targets

(Read more from “Russia Warns of War; Assad Still Using Airstrip Supposedly Destroyed by US Missiles” HERE)

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Russia, Allies Promise to Respond With Force to Future US Attacks

By Steve Hawkes. Russia, Iran and other allies of the Assad regime accused the US of “crossing red lines” over airstrikes in response to a chemical attack on a rebel-held village.

In a joint statement they said: “We will respond with force to any aggressor.”

And the Russian Embassy in London raised the prospect of war in a series of provocative tweets that described [Great Britain’s] Johnson as Trump’s “lieutenant”.

In one it suggested “conventional war” could be an outcome if G7 delivers an ultimatum this week. . .

[O]ne senator said Assad was saying ‘F*** y**’ to the US by continuing to fly jets from the airfield bombed by the US on Friday morning. (Read more from “Russia, Allies Promise to Respond With Force to Future US Attacks” HERE)

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Is the Trump-Putin Bromance Over for Good?

President Trump appears to be following the lead of his predecessors in eventually recognizing that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is no friend to America.

Throughout his campaign for president, Trump entertained the idea that America could partner with Moscow’s leadership to work on mutual goals such as targeting the Islamic State terror group.

On the campaign trail, Trump praised Putin as a strong leader and someone he could possibly “get along” with. “You know that, if Putin wants to knock the hell out of ISIS, I’m all for it 100 percent and I can’t understand how anybody would be against that,” Trump opined.

Upon becoming president, Trump still held Putin as a man who he could partner with, holding off on harsh labels and denouncing the Russian dictator. Moreover, choosing Rex Tillerson — who had very close business ties to Russia as CEO of ExxonMobil — as secretary of state seemed to amplify his commitment to making things work with Moscow.

But now, it appears as if Trump’s attempt for détente with Russia has run into inevitable geopolitical realities. Putin refuses to back away from his support of the Assad regime in Syria and the nuclear weapon-seeking mullahs who rule Iran. On the domestic front, the Russian president’s behavior hasn’t changed, either. (And Putin’s critics continue to end up dead under unusual circumstances.)

This week, Bashar Assad reportedly committed a massive chemical weapons attack against his own people, killing dozens of civilians with weapons of mass destruction. Images and videos emerged showing the horrific aftermath, with bodies of tortured innocents lining the streets. Without Putin’s backing of Assad, such a crime against humanity probably would not have happened. Assad’s staying power in Damascus is largely thanks to boots-on-the-ground military support from Russia and Iran.

Now, it appears as if President Trump has come to the realization that he can no longer bear to entertain an alliance with a man who could support the genocidal campaign against an entire citizenry. Regime forces are responsible for the vast majority of the Syrian civil war body count, which has already killed hundreds of thousands. The chemical weapons attack may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back.

President Trump described the attack as an “affront to humanity,” noting that it had a “big impact” on him personally.

“My attitude toward Syria and Assad has changed very much,” the president added.

Trump has unleashed U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who on Wednesday tore into the Russian regime for their silence on the Syria massacre. Russia “cannot escape responsibility,” Haley said, adding that Russia has “no interest in peace.”

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson followed suit, claiming Russia and Iran “bear moral responsibility” for the WMD attack.

President Trump follows his predecessors George W. Bush and Barack Obama in their initial outreach to Putin, only to renege on the idea in the end.

Bush infamously once said of Putin: “I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. I was able to get a sense of his soul.” Bush would later completely change course due to Putin’s domestic power grab, his reaffirming of alliances with enemies of America, and his military aggression against our allies.

President Obama utilized the services of his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to offer the Russians an actual “reset” in an attempt to set aside differences. Obama personally pledged “more flexibility” to work with the Russians on various issues. This did not change Putin’s behavior. Russia invaded Ukraine (an American ally), continued committing domestic atrocities, and united his country by spewing rally-around-the-flag, anti-American propaganda.

Donald Trump, too, has come to understand that Vladimir Putin is a tyrant. Any illusions Trump had that Putin would possibly come to see the United States as anything other than an enemy nation appear to be over for good. (For more from the author of “Is the Trump-Putin Bromance Over for Good?” please click HERE)

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Russia Warns of ‘Negative Consequences’ If U.S. Targets Syria

Russia’s deputy U.N. envoy, Vladimir Safronkov, warned on Thursday of “negative consequences” if the United States carries out military strikes on Syria over a deadly toxic gas attack.

“We have to think about negative consequences, negative consequences, and all the responsibility if military action occurred will be on shoulders of those who initiated such doubtful and tragic enterprise,” Safronkov told reporters when asked about possible U.S. strikes.

When asked what those negative consequences could be, he said: “Look at Iraq, look at Libya.” (Read more from “Russia Warns of ‘Negative Consequences’ If U.S. Targets Syria” HERE)

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US, Other Nations Challenge Russia’s Claim That Toxic Gas Came From Rebel Weapons Facility

Amid a barrage of international criticism directed at its Syrian ally, Russia argued Wednesday that those killed by a toxic agent in Syria’s Idlib province were the victims not of chemical-laced bombs dropped by the regime’s planes, but of chemicals released when the air force bombed a rebel storage facility.

The suggestion was challenged during an “emergency meeting” of the U.N. Security Council, where Western nations laid the responsibility for the attack at the door of the Assad regime.

The U.N. high representative for disarmament affairs, Kim Won-Soo, told the council that the attack in Khan Sheikhun on Tuesday had reportedly taken the form of an airstrike on a residential area, although he said the means of delivery could not be confirmed, and noted that the Syrian government has denied responsibility.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says at least 70 people were killed and hundreds more were affected.

“Doctors in Idlib are reporting that dozens of patients suffering from breathing difficulties and suffocation have been admitted to hospitals in the governorate for urgent medical attention, many of them women and children,” it said in a statement that reiterated that “the use of chemical weapons is a war crime.” (Read more from “US, Other Nations Challenge Russia’s Claim That Toxic Gas Came From Rebel Weapons Facility” HERE)

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This Is Apparently What Drove Devin Nunes to Finally Step Aside From the Trump-Russia Probe

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes has temporarily stepped aside from the committee’s probe into Russia’s interference in the US election and whether President Donald Trump’s campaign was involved.

His announcement comes as he has become the subject of an ethics investigation.

Nunes has come under intense scrutiny after his decision last month to bypass the rest of his committee and brief Trump on classified executive-branch documents he said showed that members of Trump’s transition team had been swept up in government surveillance.

Nunes repeatedly had said he did not intend to step aside, but there have been questions about his ability to lead an independent investigation. Reports have said he obtained the documents from White House officials, despite his claims to the contrary.

But in a statement on Thursday, Nunes said he would allow Rep. Mike Conaway to lead the investigation while he waited for the House Ethics Committee to look into complaints filed against him by what he said were “several left-wing activist groups.” (Read more from “This Is Apparently What Drove Devin Nunes to Finally Step Aside From the Trump-Russia Probe” HERE)

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What Could Be Next for Susan Rice in ‘Unmasking’ Controversy

Susan Rice, national security adviser to President Barack Obama, likely will figure in congressional investigations of Russia’s interference in the presidential election.

That prospect arose after news reports that Rice sought the identities of persons close to President Donald Trump whose communications were captured after the election in surveillance of foreigners by U.S. spy agencies.

Intelligence and national security experts say that it’s both legal and normal for someone in Rice’s position to ask to see the names of Americans whose communications are captured incidentally in surveillance of foreigners.

But intelligence committees in the House and Senate could look into whether Rice misused and spread information about Trump officials or associates once she learned their identities. The panels also could assess her motivation for seeking details about the incoming president’s conversations with foreigners.

“In the course of doing her national security adviser job, Susan Rice is within her full right to request the unmasking of NSA-collected information or FBI-collected information,” David Shedd, an acting director of the Defense Intelligence Agency under Obama who also served in the George W. Bush administration, said in an interview with The Daily Signal.

“The question becomes what does she do with that information once she knew it, rather than did she have the right to ask and did she actually do it,” added Shedd, who is now a visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation. “I would absolutely put that question front and center now as a target of investigations.”

The Wall Street Journal reported that the House intelligence committee wants Rice, national security adviser to Obama in his second term, to testify as part of its probe into Russia’s meddling in the U.S. election and whether there was any coordination between the Trump campaign and Moscow.

Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, said Tuesday that he could be interested in interviewing Rice as well.

“If there is intelligence that leads to a reason for us to look at Susan Rice, then we’ll do it,” Burr told reporters.

Trump, meanwhile, told The New York Times that he thinks Rice may have committed a crime. The president did not provide evidence for his claim.

“I think it’s going to be the biggest story,” Trump told The Times in an interview Wednesday.

Rep. Adam Schiff of California, the ranking Democrat on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, criticized Republicans for focusing on Rice. Schiff said the issue is a diversion from the question of whether Trump campaign officials colluded with Russia in its election interference.

In an interview Tuesday with MSNBC, Rice denied doing anything improper, saying that it is “absolutely false” to suggest she sought to unmask the names of Trump campaign officials for political reasons.

Rice also denied leaking the information to anyone without the security clearances required to view classified intelligence reports, which would be a crime.

“I leaked nothing to nobody, never had, never would,” Rice told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell. “The notion, which some people are trying to suggest, that by asking for the identity of an American person, that is the same as leaking it, is completely false.”

Americans whose communications are incidentally captured—meaning somebody else was the target—in surveillance of foreigners generally are not named in intelligence reports unless there is a specific request to reveal their identities.

Under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, intelligence agencies frequently monitor the conversations of foreigners—including officials with allied or hostile countries.

But the surveillance inevitably sometimes captures communications related to Americans who may be participating in the intercepted conversation or being spoken about.

To address concerns over Americans’ privacy, the law requires the government to use “minimization rules” that mask the identity of Americans—replacing the name with a generic description such as “U.S. Person 1.”

But there are exceptions. Certain government officials such as Rice may request names to be revealed to help them understand the intelligence reports.

The intelligence agencies decide whether to grant the requests, which are tracked and archived.

National Security Agency Director Michael Rogers, in testimony before the House intelligence committee last month, said 20 people at NSA have the authority to grant a request.

FBI Director James Comey, in the same hearing, would not say how many in his agency have that power. Comey did say the number is “surely” more than at the NSA, because FBI agents “come into contact” with U.S. citizens more often.

Experts say the standard required to ask for a name to be unmasked is easy to meet, meaning it’s unlikely Rice did not follow the rules if intelligence officials ultimately granted her requests.

“The standard is whether the U.S. person’s identity is needed to understand the importance of foreign intelligence information,” Adam Klein, a senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security, told The Daily Signal.

In an email, Klein said:

There’s a certain amount of subjectivity built into that, which means that the intelligence committees will likely want to look at how the standard was applied in these cases: What was the intelligence need for each unmasking request? How frequent were the requests, and was there a pattern? The answers to those questions will be informative for determining whether there’s cause for concern here.

Shedd, who had the authority to ask for Americans’ names to be unmasked when he held positions on the National Security Council, contends that it’s unlikely intelligence officials would reject a request to unmask an identity from a person in authority such as Rice.

“The predicate for unmasking is, ‘Does it have a national security concern?’” Shedd said. “I can drive a Mack truck through that. If I am Rice, I can make a case I need that name.”

Patrick Eddington, a former CIA analyst who is now a policy analyst in homeland security and civil liberties at the Cato Institute, said it’s impossible to say whether Rice and intelligence officials properly followed procedures without knowing more about the conversations that Trump or his campaign and transition teams may have engaged in.

“So far, all we have is Rice acknowledging she did ask for some specific U.S. person data in some intelligence report,” Eddington said in an interview with The Daily Signal. “We don’t have remotely enough detail on what the report was about, and why she wanted to have information unmasked.”

Eddington says the House and Senate intelligence committees will want to know more about the timing of Rice’s requests, and if she indeed sought the names of Trump campaign or transition officials in the waning days of the Obama administration.

“Rice is not a law enforcement official,” Eddington said. “If she is making these requests as she is heading out the door, it does raise questions that require a deeper examination.” (For more from the author of “What Could Be Next for Susan Rice in ‘Unmasking’ Controversy” please click HERE)

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Terror in St. Petersburg: What You Need to Know

Russia’s St. Petersburg subway train system was hit with major explosions Monday afternoon, resulting in the deaths of at least 12 people and dozens of casualties, Russian media said.

Here’s what you need to know about the underground chaos caused from a suspected terror attack.

1. What happened?

At least one explosive device, reportedly resembling a nail bomb, detonated at a main junction in the St. Petersburg metro system. The metro has been completely shut down so that police can investigate the matter and prevent further potential attacks.

The incident occurred at about 2:40 p.m. local time. Russian strongman Vladimir Putin has indicated that the explosion is being investigated as a possible act of terrorism. Putin expressed his condolences, as he was in St. Petersburg for a forum with the president of Belarus, a close ally of Russia.

Police have found and deactivated an additional unexploded bomb in a separate station, according to reports.

Social media users posted photos and video of the carnage that unfolded after the explosion.

2. Who is responsible?

At least one witness told the media that a man threw a backpack onto the train just prior to the explosion. The backpack reportedly contained a nail bomb, which is similar to the explosives used by the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing terrorists.

Russia faces an increasingly radicalizing Islamic population. Many Russian nationals from Chechnya have gone off to the Middle East to fight for ISIS and other terror groups. At least 2,400 Russians have gone to fight for ISIS since 2014, according to studies.

Russian news agency Interfax reports that surveillance footage may have captured an image of the attack’s suspect.

3. What’s next?

The attack may be taken especially personally for Russian President Putin, who was born in and long served as a government official in St. Petersburg, a city of over 5 million. The Russian autocrat has a track record of dealing with Islamic terror threats with a heavy hand.

From his early military campaigns in Dagestan to the current civil war in Syria, Putin has utilized indiscriminate bombing campaigns to clamp down on insurgencies and protect his interests.

The state-controlled RT is providing live coverage of the incident’s aftermath.

(For more from the author of “Terror in St. Petersburg: What You Need to Know” please click HERE)

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In Ukraine, Russia Weaponizes Fake News to Fight a Real War

As the Russian shells and rockets rained down on them in the front-line town of Debaltseve in February 2015, Ukrainian troops began to receive curious, anonymous SMS messages on their cellphones.

“Your comrades nearby already left their positions, so you should leave yours as well,” one message read.

The messages also claimed that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, as well as Ukrainian military commanders, had “betrayed” the soldiers.

The Ukrainian military later concluded that Russian military forces had taken over the local cellphone network with mobile jamming stations. The SMS messages were part of a psychological operation against Ukrainian troops, not too different in its intent from dropping propaganda leaflets from airplanes, a psychological warfare technique that dates back to World War I as a way to demoralize troops.

“Three years into the Russian aggression, we have experienced every Kremlin method and technique there is,” Poroshenko told The Daily Signal.

“And I should remind that Moscow started its campaigns in Crimea and eastern Ukraine particularly with the subtle manipulation of information,” Poroshenko said. “Tanks, artillery, and hundreds of innocent victims followed later.”

The combined use of propaganda and cyberwarfare to support military operations on the ground are hallmarks of Russian “hybrid warfare.”

In Ukraine, Russian military forces have combined World War I and II-era weapons and tactics—like artillery bombardments, tank attacks, and trench warfare—with weapons unique to the 21st century battlefield, such as cyberattacks and sophisticated propaganda campaigns geared toward TV and internet audiences.

In September 2014, U.S. Gen. Philip Breedlove, then NATO’s top commander, called Russia’s hybrid war in Ukraine “the most amazing information warfare blitzkrieg we have ever seen in the history of information warfare.”

“Fake news is a weapon,” Viktor Kovalenko, a Ukrainian journalist and army combat veteran from the 2015 battle of Debaltseve, told The Daily Signal.

“I saw firsthand how Russians use fake news against the Ukrainian troops on the front line,” Kovalenko, a former professor of journalism at the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, added. “Via fake news Russians wanted to defeat Ukrainians the same way, effectively, as by artillery and tanks.”

Hybrid warfare is Russia’s modern interpretation of a Soviet military doctrine called “deep battle,” in which military operations extend beyond the front lines deep into an enemy country’s territory in order to hinder its ability to wage war.

And, some say, Russia is tapping into its hybrid warfare arsenal, now battle-tested in Ukraine, to wage a uniquely 21st century style of war against the United States and the European Union.

For its part, the U.S. is currently investigating whether Russia spread fake news and used cyberwarfare to interfere with the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

“Whether it is Ukraine, the EU, or the United States, Russia has the same playbook and goals,” Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, said. “It employs hybrid warfare—so-called fake news, computer hacking, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, snap drills, direct military interventions, and so on and so forth—to undermine the Western democracies and break the transatlantic unity.”

Fake News, Real War

In 2014, Kovalenko was conscripted into the Ukrainian army’s 40th Brigade as an active-duty senior lieutenant. In late January 2015, the 40th Brigade was hunkered down in the eastern Ukrainian town of Debaltseve, taking intermittent artillery fire as they skirmished against infantry assaults from a combined force of pro-Russian separatists and Russian regulars.

Then, on Jan. 28, all hell broke loose. A massive artillery, mortar, and rocket bombardment pummeled the Ukrainian troops in and around Debaltseve.

“We had already become accustomed to the sound of distant, sporadic shelling,” Kovalenko wrote in his diary at the time. “But on the evening of 28 January, mortar shells and self-propelled rockets, launched from Russian MLRSs (‘Grads’), began falling on our base so frequently that, as it seemed to me, they were exploding several times per second.”

The only refuge was to seek shelter underground. And that’s what many soldiers and civilians did. And that’s where many of them died.

In late February 2015, weeks after the battle ended, the United Nations reported that the bodies of hundreds of civilians had been found in houses and in cellars throughout Debaltseve. Some were entombed when their homes collapsed onto them due to a direct hit. Others suffocated when incendiary devices sucked the oxygen out of the air.

Altogether, more than 500 Ukrainian civilians died in the battle, according to United Nations and U.S. estimates.

In one bombardment, a piece of rocket shrapnel about the size of a gumball tore through the room in which Kovalenko was sleeping, slicing through his sleeping bag like a razor. Kovalenko was unscathed, but rattled.

“From that night I slept on the bed no more!” Kovalenko wrote. “Two weeks later, on 13 February, the whole bedroom was completely destroyed by enemy mortars and rockets.”

Minutes, seconds; feet, inches. That’s often the threshold between life and death in this kind of materiel war. Your survival often has less to do with your skills as a soldier than just blind luck.

Describing one close call, Kovalenko wrote: “The location of the shell hole in the backyard led me to conclude that I had miraculously survived with God’s help, because at the moment of the explosion I was standing indoors behind a thick concrete wall. But if I hadn’t delayed exiting the apartment, I would have run right into the blast-area of death.”

Seeing Red

As fighting raged in Debaltseve, cease-fire negotiations were simultaneously going on 750 miles away in the Belarusian capital of Minsk.

Ukrainian officials later claimed that the approximately 6,000 Ukrainian troops in Debaltseve faced a combined Russian-separatist force of about 15,000 to 17,000 soldiers, including about 12,000 to 13,000 Russian regulars.

The Kremlin denied it was supporting the separatists or had its own troops fighting in Ukraine. Yet, tellingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a place at the cease-fire’s negotiating table alongside Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and French President Francois Hollande.

A deal was struck in Minsk on Feb. 12. The cease-fire was supposed to go into effect on Feb. 15, but it was dead on arrival. Russian artillery, rockets, and small arms assaults never let up in Debaltseve.

“From early morning till late evening, and sometimes during the nights, they have been shelling, firing and trying to break our defense lines,” Kovalenko wrote in his diary from the battle. “Their attacks couldn’t be possible without support from Russia, which sends them heavy weaponry, lots of ammunition, and military instructors as well.”

Then, on Feb. 18, 2015, suffering heavy casualties, and while under persistent shelling and rocket fire, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Debaltseve. In the ensuing chaos, Ukrainian soldiers who missed the mechanized retreat had to escape on foot, dodging Russian Grad rockets—a multiple-launch rocket system that carpets a targeted area in a hailstorm of shrapnel and explosions.

Today, the town remains under combined Russian-separatist control.

Overall, about 185 Ukrainian soldiers died in the battle, with about another 200 listed as captured or missing.

On Feb. 23, 2015, Ukrainian soldiers taken prisoner in Debaltseve were paraded through the separatist strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk. It was Defender of the Fatherland Day—a Russian holiday that commemorates the first mass conscription into the Red Army during the Russian Civil War.

“Russian media aggressively labeled the Ukrainians ‘Nazis’ and ‘fascists,’ so that the purported mass parade of [prisoners of war] would awaken memories of how the Soviets happily paraded German prisoners on Red Square, Moscow, in 1945,” Kovalenko wrote.

Hybrid War

More than two years after Minsk II went into effect, daily combat persists along the 250-mile-long front lines in eastern Ukraine’s embattled Donbas region.

A third of the 10,000 Ukrainians who have died in the war were killed after the February 2015 cease-fire was signed. Casualties, both civilian and military, still occur daily on both sides of the conflict. And about 1.7 million Ukrainians remain de facto refugees in their own country due to the war.

The Minsk II cease-fire has largely kept the war in check, and both sides have not made any major offensives in more than two years. But the Ukraine war is not confined to the battlefields of the Donbas.

As airpower did after World War I, Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine has redefined the boundaries of the modern battlefield.

“Cyberpower has in part replaced many forms of traditional power, from air and submarine power to assassination,” Kenneth Geers, ambassador of NATO’s cybersecurity center and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told The Daily Signal.

Early airpower theorists argued that targeting an enemy country’s industry and infrastructure could destroy its industrial capacity to wage war. That theory was later extended to include targeting civilian population centers to damage morale.

In his 1921 book, “The Command of the Air,” Italian air warfare theorist Giulio Douhet wrote:

No longer can areas exist in which life can be lived in safety and tranquillity, nor can the battlefield any longer be limited to actual combatants. On the contrary, the battlefield will be limited only by the boundaries of the nations at war, and all of their citizens will become combatants, since all of them will be exposed to the aerial offensives of the enemy.

According to a 1945 study by the U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey, “Strategic bombing was the major means by which the Allies were able to strike a direct blow at the morale of German civilians.”

“Bombing did not stiffen morale,” the report added. “The hate and anger it aroused tended to be directed against the Nazi regime.”

Hybrid weapons have not replaced the more tactical uses of combat airpower like close air support, or air interdiction. But hundreds of miles behind the front lines in Ukraine, Russia’s propaganda and cyberattacks have supplanted the strategic use of airpower to effect Russia’s deep battle doctrine.

The war in Ukraine has become a proving ground for Russia’s strategic use of hybrid warfare weapons like propaganda and cyberattacks.

“Ukraine has been an evolutionary step forward,” Geers said, “with examples of digital conflict seen across the spectrum, in every domain, from politics to diplomacy, in military operations, business, critical infrastructure, and social media.”

Russian cyberattacks have targeted Ukraine’s power grid, its biggest international airport, and the country’s 2014 presidential election. And Russian propaganda has targeted the morale of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers.

“Russian propaganda on the territory of Ukraine is part of hybrid war, which is carried out against the Ukrainian people,” Vitaliy Yarema, Ukraine’s former prosecutor general and former first deputy prime minister on security and defense, told The Daily Signal.

“As for today, the situation in Ukraine is still not stable,” Yarema said. “The systematic strikes and protests, which result in destabilizing the socioeconomic and the legal system of the country, are a direct result of Russian propaganda, and threaten no less than open warfare in the east.”

Misinformation

Ukraine’s 2014 revolution overthrew a kleptocratic, pro-Russian ruler. To prevent a similar scenario in Russia, the Kremlin discredited Ukraine’s pro-European revolution as a CIA-sponsored, neo-Nazi coup.

Through propaganda, Russia was able to create a false narrative, painting its 2014 seizure of Crimea and the ensuing conflict in the Donbas as grassroots efforts instigated by disaffected Ukrainians who believed the new government in Kyiv was illegitimate.

In a March 18, 2014, speech at the Kremlin, Putin said Ukraine’s post-revolution government “resorted to terror, murder, and riots.”

“Nationalists, neo-Nazis, Russophobes, and anti-Semites executed the coup,” the Russian president said.

Putin claimed the people of Crimea had turned to Russian for help. “Naturally, we could not leave this plea unheeded,” Putin said. “We could not abandon Crimea and its residents in distress. This would have been betrayal on our part.”

Beginning on April 6, 2014, pro-Russian separatists operating under the watchful eye of Russian intelligence agents and special forces troops took over multiple towns in eastern Ukraine, spawning two breakaway republics—the Donetsk People’s Republic, or DNR, and the Luhansk People’s Republic, or LNR.

Throughout the summer of 2014, Ukraine’s armed forces launched a military operation to stop the separatist takeover of eastern Ukraine and take back lost territory. By July 2014, Ukraine had retaken 23 out of 36 districts captured by combined Russian-separatist forces.

Russian media broadcast a series of reports painting the conflict as a crusade to protect ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine.

U.S. journalist David Satter described Russia’s propaganda campaign against Ukraine in his 2016 book, “The Less You Know, the Better You Sleep: Russia’s Road to Terror and Dictatorship under Yeltsin and Putin.”

Satter, the first American journalist to be expelled from Russia since the Cold War, wrote:

Among the false reports intended to stoke nationalist hysteria were the story of a three-year-old boy who was allegedly tortured and crucified by the Ukrainian military in Slaviansk, a report on the raising of the levels of the Lopan and Kharkov rivers so that NATO submarines could reach Donetsk, a report on the cancellation of the May 9 World War II commemoration in Kiev and its replacement by a gay pride parade, a report that the Ukrainians had stopped selling bread to Russian speakers, and a report that Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, was preparing to make Hitler’s birthday a national holiday.

Propaganda ultimately played a key role in Russia’s military campaign against Ukraine; it became an effective recruitment tool.

Within the separatist territories, Russian propaganda spurred tens of thousands of Ukrainians to take up arms against their countrymen. An enlistment office for the separatist republics was opened in Moscow for Russian citizens who wanted to join the war.

And Russia’s false news reports disseminated worldwide via the internet drew foreign fighters to join Russia’s proxy army against Ukraine—including from Serbia, France, Brazil, and the United States.

Even today on the Ukrainian side of the front lines in the Donbas, some villages and towns only receive Russian broadcast television—Ukrainian TV and news programs are unavailable, except by cable.

A New Battlefield

Russian cyberattacks and propaganda are nonlethal weapons of war, complicating the debate on what exactly comprises a proportional response to such methods.

“The adversary is constantly perfecting its hybrid warfare, especially in the cybersphere,” Poroshenko told The Daily Signal, referring to Russia.

“I’m glad to see that our Western partners have acknowledged the threat and started strengthening their cybersecurity,” the Ukrainian president added.

NATO, for its part, has already said cyberattacks are a military threat.

“Cyberspace is an official domain of warfare.” Geers said. “NATO has named cyberattacks, along with ballistic missiles and terrorism, as one of the top three threats to the alliance.”

“The ubiquity, inter-connectivity, and intimacy of computers have made some cyberattacks more powerful than traditional kinetic attacks,” Geers added.

“When you attack a country, it’s an act of war,” U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said during a December 2016 interview on Ukrainian TV, referring to Russia’s alleged operations to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

At a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing Thursday, Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., said Russian hackers had “weaponized” stolen information during the 2016 election.

Warner said the Senate’s investigation into Russian meddling in the election was meant to hold “Russia accountable for this unprecedented attack on our democracy.”

Yet, despite the rhetoric from both Democrats and Republicans equating Russia’s election meddling with acts of war, the U.S. has not yet retaliated against Russia with conventional military force.

In November 2016, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that included measures to counter Russian propaganda in the U.S. And under former President Barack Obama, the U.S. placed additional sanctions on Russia for its alleged presidential election cyberattacks.

Even in Ukraine after three years of war, Russian websites are not blocked, and many Ukrainians still watch Russian TV channels.

“The Kremlin actively and absurdly exploits democratic freedoms against democracies,” Kovalenko told The Daily Signal.

“Fake news is a major tool in Kremlin’s propaganda to deceive its enemies,” Kovalenko said. “It’s one of the weapons in the information war, relaunched by Moscow in recent years for the first time since the Soviet Union collapsed. Among the foreign enemies is the government of Ukraine. But the Kremlin also wants to deceive Europe and the U.S., to make them weaker.” (For more from the author of “In Ukraine, Russia Weaponizes Fake News to Fight a Real War” please click HERE)

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